Digniinta Iran iyo Ciidamada Maraykanka oo ku soo Qulqulay Bariga Dhexe

Tehran / Washington — Axaddii, 1-da Bilsha Labaad ee 2026, qaab-dhismeedka siyaasadda Bariga Dhexe wuxuu u leexday jihadii ugu khatarta badnayd muddo tobannaan sano ah. Hoggaamiyaha Sare ee Jamhuuriyadda Islaamiga ah ee Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ayaa soo saaray digniin si cad u ruxday caalamka: weerar militari oo Maraykanku ku qaado dhulka Iran ma ahaan doono dhacdo xaddidan, balse wuxuu kicin doonaa “dagaal goboleed oo dhamaystiran.”

Isaga oo ka hadlayay dadweyne ku sugan Tehran, isla waqtigaasna markabka xambaara diyaaradaha ee Maraykanka USS Abraham Lincoln uu ku sugnaa Badda Carbeed, Khamenei oo 86 jir ah, wuxuu muujiyay in waqtigii samir istiraatiiji ah dhammaaday.

“Maraykanku ha ogaado in haddii dagaal la billaabo markan, uusan ahaan doonin mid xaddidan, balse uu noqon doono dagaal goboleed,” ayuu yiri, hadal si toos ah u tilmaamaya in Iran diyaar u tahay inay ka baxdo xadka ka-hortagga ee hore.

Ururinta Ciidamada Maraykanka: Cadaadis Siyaasadeed oo Ku Lammaan Awood Ciidan

Xiisaddan sii kacaysa waxay salka ku haysaa ururin ciidan oo ballaadhan oo Maraykanku ku sameeyay gobolka, taas oo madaxweyne Donald Trump ku sifeeyay “armada weyn oo aan horay loo arag.” Hoggaanka markabka Abraham Lincoln, ciidamadu waxay isugu jiraan maraakiib burburiye ah, diyaaradaha F-15E Strike Eagle, iyo nidaamyo difaac gantaale oo casri ah sida THAAD iyo Patriot, kuwaas oo lagu xoojiyay saldhigyada muhiimka ah sida Al-Udeid ee Qatar.

Ujeeddada Washington waxay u muuqataa mid ku wajahan ku qasbid istiraatiiji ah (strategic submission). Madaxweynaha Maraykanka ayaa dejiyay khadad cas oo cadcad:

• In la joojiyo dilalka ballaadhan ee lagula kaco dibadbaxayaasha gudaha Iran.

• In si joogto ah oo la xaqiijin karo loo xaddido barnaamijyada nukliyeerka iyo gantaallada ballistic-ga ee Iran.

Inkasta oo Trump uu sheegay in Tehran “si dhab ah u wadahadleyso” si ay dagaal uga baaqsato, haddana wuxuu adkeeyay in “waqtigu gabaabsi yahay,” hadal sii kordhinaya culayska saaran hoggaanka Iran.

Istiraatiijiyadda Ka-hortagga Iran: Hubaynta Marin-biyoodka Hormuz

Tehran kama aysan harin fariin-celinta. 1-da iyo 2-da February, Ciidamada Badda ee Ilaalada Kacaanka Islaamiga ah (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) ayaa bilaabay tababar laba maalmood socday oo rasaas toos ah lagu ridayo, kana dhacay Marin-biyoodka Hormuz, meel ay maraan ku dhowaad 20% shidaalka adduunka.

Warbixinno ayaa sheegaya in Iran ay halkaas ku daabushay boqolaal doonyood oo degdeg ah oo gantaallo ku rakiban yihiin, kuwaas oo si dhow ula socday maraakiibta Maraykanka.

Sidoo kale, markabka dayuuradaha drone-ka qaada ee “Shahid Bagheri” ayaa lagu arkay wax ka yar lix kiiloomitir xeebta Bandar Abbas. Farriinta Tehran waa mid aan mugdi ku jirin: haddii la weeraro, Iran waxay u beddeli doontaa tamarta adduunka hub dagaal, taas oo sababi karta naxdin dhaqaale oo gilgisha suuqyada Reer Galbeedka.

Arrimaha Gudaha

Halista dibadda waxay ku soo beegantay xilli Iran ay la tacaalayso caqabaddii gudaha ugu weynayd tan iyo 1979. Dibadbaxyo qaran oo ka dhashay burburka lacagta iyo sicir-bararka sare ee dhammaadkii Diseembar 2025 ayaa sababay gacan bir ah oo ay dawladdu ku jawaabtay.

Hay’adaha xuquuqda aadanaha ayaa sheegaya in ugu yaraan 6,300 oo qof la dilay, halka Qaramada Midoobay ay tilmaamayso in tiradu gaadhi karto 20,000. Tan iyo 8-dii Bilshii kowaad ee 2026, Iran waxay ku jirtaa go’doomin isgaadhsiineed oo ku dhow mid dhamaystiran, Xayndaab Dijitaal ah, kaas oo lagu qarinayo dilalka ballaadhan laguna isku dubbaridayo ciidammada amniga, oo ay ku jiraan gargaar la sheegay inuu ka yimi maleeshiyaad Shiico ah oo Ciraaq ah.

Jiidda Isku-dhafka ah

Dagaalka casriga ahi maanta ma ku koobna rasaas iyo gantaallo. Jiiddada isku-dhafka ah (Hybrid Front) waxay ka dhigan tahay in kaabayaasha nolosha laftoodu noqdaan bartilmaameed:

• Dhaqaale: Mas’uuliyiin Maraykan ah ayaa tixgelinaya weerarro cyber ah oo lagu curyaamin karo nidaamyada maaliyadeed ee Iran, si dhaqaalaha “hal galab” loo hakiyo.

• Saameyn Goboleed: La-taliyaha sare ee Iran, Ali Shamkhani, ayaa ka digay in jawaab-celintu ay gaadhi doonto “wadnaha Tel Aviv” iyo cid kasta oo taageerta Maraykanka.

• Tamarta iyo Biyaha: Dalalka Khaliijka sida Qatar iyo Sucuudiga waxay ka cabsi qabaan in weerar Maraykan ahi kiciyo duqayn lagu qaado warshadaha biyaha lagu sifeeyo (desalination), haamaha shidaalka iyo shabakadaha korontada.

Gunaanad

Waddada lagu yareyn karo xiisadda maanta waa mid cidhiidhi ah. Turkiga ayaa soo jeediyay dhexdhexaadin, xiriirro dadban ayaana socda iyada oo loo marayo Masar iyo Qatar. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, iyadoo heshiiskii New START(heshiis ka dhexeeya dawladda maraykanka iyo ruushka oo xakameeya tiradda gantaaladda nukliyeerka ee labadda dal) uu gabaabsi yahay, hoggaanka Iran-na uu dibadbaxyada ku tilmaamayo “afgambi shisheeye,” halista qalad yar oo isu beddela musiibo weyn waxay gaadhay heerkii ugu sarreeyay.

Sannadka 2026, oo ah sanadka wax kasta hub loo adeegsaday, tamarta, dhaqaalaha, isgaadhsiinta, waxay xaqiijisay in dhimbiil yar oo ka kacda Gacanka Faaris lagu dareemi doono guri kasta iyo ganacsi kasta oo caalamka ka mid ah. Dagaal haddii uu qarxo, ma ahaan doono mid maxalli ah; wuxuu noqon doonaa mid saameynkiisu gaadho dunida oo dhan.