How Turkey’s Aggression in the Horn of Africa Could Benefit Al-Shabaab
- Sinan Ciddi and William Doran
- Feb 28
- 2 min read
Original Author: Sinan Ciddi and William Doran
Original Publication: Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)
Date: February 27, 2026
Curated Excerpt (Fair Use)
Following Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland, tensions are rapidly escalating with Turkey, which has firmly aligned itself with Somalia's federal government. This analysis examines how the diplomatic clash over Somaliland's sovereignty is transforming into a high-stakes geopolitical competition, with both Middle Eastern powers moving to secure military and economic dominance in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor.
The article details the competing strategic interests driving this friction. For Israel, Somaliland offers a vital security buffer against Houthi threats in nearby Yemen and a promising commercial partner for critical minerals. Conversely, Turkey views an Israeli presence as a direct challenge to its extensive, decade-long state-building project in Mogadishu. The authors outline Ankara’s deep military and economic entrenchment in Somalia, which includes the Camp TURKSOM military base, a ten-year naval defense pact, offshore energy drilling rights, and recent deployments of F-16 fighter jets and combat drones.
Ultimately, the piece warns that Ankara's efforts to isolate Somaliland and rally regional states against Israel risk inflaming the already fragile relations between Hargeisa and Mogadishu. The authors argue that this intensifying foreign militarization and proxy rivalry creates the exact fragmented security environment where extremist organizations thrive, warning that the influx of advanced weaponry and regional instability will ultimately benefit Al-Shabaab.
About the Authors
Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow and director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and an associate professor of national security studies at the Marine Corps University. William Doran is a research intern with the Turkey Program at FDD. The FDD is a Washington, D.C.-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
This is a curated article from an external publication. All views expressed belong to the original authors. Gallaydh.com curates external work to encourage informed discussion and critical engagement.
