Recognizing Somaliland Won’t Cause War; It Will Prevent One
- Michael Rubin
- Jan 8
- 2 min read
Original Author: Michael Rubin
Original Publication: Middle East Forum (MEF Observer)
Date: January 8, 2026
Curated Excerpt (Fair Use)
This article argues that recognizing Somaliland would reduce, not provoke, regional conflict in the Horn of Africa. Drawing on Israel’s January 2026 recognition and diplomatic engagement with Somaliland, the author contends that fears within parts of the U.S. State Department that recognition would destabilize the region are misplaced and historically inaccurate.
According to the piece, Somalia’s counterterrorism cooperation is unreliable and deeply compromised by corruption and extremist infiltration, while Somaliland has demonstrated long-term stability, effective local security, and resilience against militant violence. The author emphasizes that recognition would uphold established colonial-era borders rather than redraw them, comparing Somaliland’s case to other peaceful dissolutions of failed political unions.s.
The article further warns that deferring to Mogadishu’s irredentist narrative risks encouraging wider regional conflict, citing historical precedents such as Somalia’s 1977 invasion of Ethiopia’s Ogaden region. Appeasement, the author argues, emboldens expansionist claims that could eventually involve Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya.
Ultimately, the piece frames U.S. hesitation on Somaliland recognition as a strategic error that undermines American credibility, strengthens adversarial influence, and increases the likelihood of future war rather than preventing it.
About the Author
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, specializing in Middle Eastern politics, security, and U.S. foreign policy. He previously served as a Pentagon official and has conducted fieldwork in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and Afghanistan. Rubin has also taught U.S. military units and authored several books on regional conflict and extremism.
This is a curated article from an external publication. All views expressed belong to the original author. Gallaydh.com curates external work to promote informed discussion, critical analysis, and deeper engagement with global and regional affairs.
