A Constitution Without Consensus: Does President Hassan Sheikh Intend to Rule Only Mogadishu?
- A Gallaydh Editorial
- Mar 2
- 3 min read
The Speaker of the Somali Parliament recently made a firm declaration that the constitutional amendment process will be concluded before the end of Ramadan. This move exposes the Federal Government's unwavering determination to force through these monumental changes, completely disregarding the fierce pushback from opposition groups and federal member states.
The administration in Mogadishu has made it abundantly clear that it will not tolerate any obstacles to its agenda. This was starkly evident when numerous parliamentarians were banned from attending sessions following their vocal disruptions inside the House of the People in January and February. The government seemingly believes that the only viable path forward is to bulldoze any legislative resistance.
The Opposition Wall: Puntland's Firm Stance
The most formidable resistance to this plan stems from opposition politicians, particularly the coalition of presidential candidates, alongside the federal member states of Puntland and Jubbaland. Notably, Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni recently chaired a consultative meeting at the presidential palace in Garowe, bringing together his cabinet and the federal lawmakers representing Puntland, some of whom joined via video call.
The meeting established a definitive red line, producing historic decisions regarding the country's political trajectory. The Puntland government and its bicameral representatives agreed on a rigid stance against the "illegal" amendments being championed by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to the Provisional Constitution.
Puntland categorically stated that it only recognizes the 2012 Provisional Constitution. Consequently, any amendments made without an inclusive consensus are deemed null and void and will hold no legal weight within Puntland's territories. Their central message was a refusal to participate in the current process, warning that these unilateral actions act as a dagger to Somalia's federal system and political stability.
Analysis: The Capital Power Grab and Villa Somalia's Strategy
The crucial question remains: what emboldens President Hassan Sheikh to walk this perilous path while fully aware that a national consensus does not exist? Political analysis indicates that the president perceives his grip on power within the capital city of Mogadishu to be absolute. He projects immense confidence that his seat is secure, believing no opposition force or regional state can directly threaten his authority from within the capital.
This overconfidence has birthed a new, quiet philosophy within Villa Somalia. The presidency's calculation appears to be that even if regional presidents sever ties with the central government and retreat to their respective states, it poses no existential threat to the federal administration. President Hassan Sheikh is testing a governance model that treats the nation as a "Mogadishu Enclave," a government ruling almost exclusively over the capital. This strategy aims to make Mogadishu the sole epicenter of national destiny, reducing federal member states to mere spectators with no influence at the decision-making table.
The primary driver pushing the president down this road is his reliance on foreign recognition. He possesses a deep understanding that the international community consistently engages with, and provides funding to, whoever occupies the capital and holds the official federal stamp, largely ignoring the insubordination of distant regions. This perspective gives Villa Somalia the audacity to implement unilateral decisions, entirely sidelining the federal system built on power-sharing.
The Hidden Agenda: A Ploy for a Mandate Extension?
On the other hand, does the president truly believe he can forcibly conduct a universal suffrage election without the consent of the opposition? Political reality points to this being a high-stakes negotiating tactic.
The proposed constitution grants the president exorbitant powers, allowing him to form a government, appoint a compliant prime minister, and control electoral commissions. However, the ultimate endgame is widely suspected to be a mandate extension.
In political science, it is a common strategy to demand the impossible to secure what is actually desired. When the president aggressively pushes these draconian clauses, bringing the country to the brink of collapse and pushing regional states toward secession, a negotiation table will inevitably be convened. It is there that the president will capitalize on the crisis, offering to compromise on the disputed constitutional articles in exchange for an extension of his term, arguing that the country needs stability to reach an inclusive election. It is a carefully orchestrated political chess game: manufacture a constitutional crisis, then pose as the great compromiser saving the nation, all to legitimize extra time in office.
Ultimately, the Federal Government's decision to accelerate the constitutional amendments is not merely a legal procedure; it is a highly dangerous political gamble. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is testing the absolute limits of central government power and the endurance of the federal system. If this strategy fails, Somalia risks sliding back into a state of deep fragmentation, threatening to dismantle the progress achieved over the past fifteen years.
