The Red Sea Power Game: Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and the contest for influence in the Horn of Africa
- Marie De Vries
- Mar 3
- 2 min read
Original Author: Marie De Vries
Original Publication: FMES (Fondation Méditerranéenne d'Études Stratégiques)
Date: March 2, 2026
Curated Excerpt (Fair Use)
Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland represents a major strategic shift in the Red Sea's security architecture rather than just a diplomatic gesture. Driven by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pivot to Africa, the move seeks to counter Iranian and Houthi influence by securing real-time intelligence access and strategic depth along the Gulf of Aden. This maneuver has crystallized a "Berbera Axis," aligning Israel with the United Arab Emirates and landlocked Ethiopia, which is urgently seeking maritime access.
However, this alignment has triggered severe regional pushback and the formation of a counterbalancing "Mogadishu Axis". Somalia has vehemently defended its territorial integrity by deepening military and defense ties with Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Turkey has expanded its military footprint in Mogadishu, while Egypt has deployed an additional 1,000 troops to counter what Cairo perceives as strategic encirclement by Ethiopia and Israel near the vital Suez Canal.
The analysis warns that Israel's forward positioning is a double-edged sword, potentially turning Somaliland into a frontline target for Houthi networks and Al-Shabaab militants. Consequently, the author predicts that a rapid cascade of international recognition is unlikely. Instead, the region is entering a phase of "calibrated ambiguity," where major powers will prioritize practical maritime access, intelligence sharing, and security cooperation over formal declarations of statehood in order to maintain broader regional stability.
About the Publication
FMES (Fondation Méditerranéenne d'Études Stratégiques) is a French research institute and think tank dedicated to analyzing geopolitical, maritime, and strategic security dynamics across the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Africa.
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