Israel’s push for Somaliland base raises fears of wider war
- Dan M. Ford
- Mar 13
- 2 min read
Original Author: Dan M. Ford
Original Publication: Responsible Statecraft
Date: March 12, 2026
Curated Excerpt (Fair Use)
Recent reports indicate that Israel is actively negotiating with Somaliland officials to establish a strategic security partnership, potentially including a military base or installation along the territory's coast. This move is driven by Israel's objective to counter Yemen's Houthi rebels, who have launched nearly 500 attacks against ships and Israeli assets since October 2023. Positioned near the critical Bab el-Mandeb strait, which handles up to 10% to 12% of global shipping, Somaliland offers strategic proximity to Yemen and the broader Red Sea corridor.
These negotiations arrive just months after Israel's unprecedented December 2025 recognition of Somaliland's independence. While Somalia's president has alleged this diplomatic normalization involved a quid pro quo agreement for an Israeli military presence, Somaliland’s minister of the presidency stated that no base has been finalized, but the possibility will "definitely" be analyzed. This development is rapidly cementing proxy alliances in the region, with the UAE quietly aligning behind Somaliland, while Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia reinforce their support for Somalia through arms sales and security arrangements.
The article warns that establishing an Israeli military outpost in Somaliland risks dragging the fragile Horn of Africa into the widening Middle East conflict. The region is already highly volatile, grappling with Somalia's ongoing war against al-Shabaab, escalating border tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and a devastating civil war in neighboring Sudan that has displaced 14 million people. Expanding Israel's military reach into this environment threatens to exacerbate these existing crises and superimpose Middle Eastern proxy wars onto African soil.
About the Author
Dan M. Ford is a junior research fellow at the Quincy Institute's Global South Program. Previously he served as a research and communications associate at the Global Interagency Security Forum in Washington, D.C.
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