Somalia Enters a New Phase: Turkey's Departure from Neutrality and the Risk of a Regional Arms Race
- A Gallaydh Editorial
- Mar 31
- 3 min read
MOGADISHU, Somalia For nearly fifteen years, the Turkish government has played a highly visible role in Somalia, focusing on humanitarian aid, military rebuilding, and diplomacy. Throughout this period, Ankara carefully avoided taking sides in the chronic political disputes that have plagued the relationship between the federal government and the federal member states. However, the latest events unfolding in Baidoa, the interim capital of Southwest State, have officially revealed a stark shift in Turkey's policy of neutrality.
In recent days, Turkish drones and specially trained Somali commando units, known as Gorgor, have been at the forefront of a military offensive launched by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's administration against Baidoa to oust regional President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, widely known as Laftagareen. This development plunges Somalia into a new, multifaceted phase that poses a severe threat to the survival of the federal system and the nation's overall stability.
Southwest's Accusations and the Revelation of Air Power
The Speaker of the Southwest State Parliament, Ali Said Fiqi, strongly condemned Turkey's role, accusing Ankara of allowing its weapons, aircraft, and funded troops to be used to suppress the people of Southwest State.
"Turkey has become part of blatant military intervention against our people," Speaker Fiqi stated, noting that military power intended for counterterrorism has now been diverted for political purposes.
Meanwhile, reliable sources confirm that the federal troops' ground offensive was accompanied by crucial air support. As the troops advanced toward Baidoa, Turkish combat drones launched heavy airstrikes on Al-Shabab positions in the Daynuunay area. This air cover allowed government forces to bypass the militants safely, swiftly enter Baidoa, and successfully oust Laftagareen. This marks the first time in Somalia's modern history that a foreign power has provided direct logistical and air support in a war rooted in an internal political conflict.
Setting a Dangerous Precedent
The Baidoa incident is not merely a military victory for the Mogadishu administration; it is the breaking of the unwritten rules of Somali politics. Following the recent lifting of the United Nations arms embargo, this is the first time sophisticated, foreign supplied weaponry has been overtly used to settle a political deadlock between the central government and a regional state.
This sets an incredibly dangerous precedent. It sounds a loud alarm bell for current and future regional presidents. Naturally, the leaders of federal member states who oppose Villa Somalia's policies, such as Puntland and Jubaland, will immediately begin to arm themselves to prevent a similar attack on their own territories.
The Beginning of a Regional Arms Race
The direct consequence of this event will be the ignition of a regional arms race. Federal member states will actively seek out foreign alliances to supply them with weapons and military logistics. Given the compounding geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa and the intervention of foreign powers with vested interests including Gulf countries like the UAE and Qatar, as well as Egypt, Ethiopia, and Turkey itself who can guarantee that weapons will not covertly flow to administrations resisting Mogadishu?
Initially, these modern weapons were brought into the country under the pretext of eradicating the Al-Shabab militant group. But now, witnessing special forces and advanced weaponry being used as tools to destroy political adversaries, regardless of whether the federal government had a legitimate reason or just cause, severely undermines the trust of both the Somali public and the international community.
The Cycle of Chaos and the Failure of a Unified National Army
Another devastating consequence of this incident is the birth of a new, destructive political culture. Every incoming president who takes over the country might make it a habit to use military force to topple sitting regional presidents and install their own loyalists. This practice will create a dangerous cycle of prolonged political instability, where every new administration is inaugurated with civil war and armed conflict.
Ultimately, the Baidoa episode has completely shattered the dream of ever nationalizing the regional security forces. The ultimate goal was for Somalia to have a single national army loyal to the presidency in Villa Somalia, rather than an assortment of armed regional militias. Although that dream was already a distant prospect, the use of the national army and foreign power to dismantle a regional administration guarantees that every federal member state will desperately build its own independent army. They will view a military force matching or deterring the central government as the sole guarantee of their political survival.
In conclusion, the federal government's newly displayed firepower and Turkey's support may have secured a swift, manufactured victory in the short term. However, the harsh reality on the ground indicates that this action has opened the door to new crises that could permanently cripple the peacebuilding process and the unification of the Somali nation.
