Gulf attention is turning inward: why the Iran war could destabilise the Horn of Africa
- Brendon J. Cannon
- Mar 11
- 2 min read
Original Author:Ā Brendon J. Cannon
Original Publication:Ā The Conversation
Date:Ā March 9, 2026
Curated Excerpt (Fair Use)
The escalating U.S.-Israel war on Iran threatens to significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa as Gulf states increasingly redirect their focus and resources inward. Over the past decade, countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have heavily influenced the region through financial patronage, military equipment, and diplomatic mediation. As their strategic priorities shift toward domestic security, the Horn of Africa faces a potential vacuum that could either temporarily cool existing tensions or dangerously escalate unresolved conflicts as local actors scramble for remaining resources.
This retraction of Gulf support could profoundly impact ongoing regional crises, particularly the civil war in Sudan. The rapid withdrawal of external largesseāsuch as the UAEās backing of the Rapid Support Forcesāmay leave warring factions unable to secure a decisive military victory, potentially prolonging the conflict. The author also critiques the popular narrative of rigid regional "blocs" (e.g., a UAE-Israel-Somaliland axis versus a Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Somalia coalition), arguing instead that these are fragile, opportunistic alignments driven by Horn leaders who adeptly play external patrons against one another to advance their own domestic agendas.
As Gulf diplomacy wanes, Israel's recent recognition of Somaliland and Somalia's ambitions for reunification are likely to fall off the priority lists of states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. However, the article notes that non-Gulf powers like Turkey and Egypt are poised to exploit this distraction. Turkey may use the opportunity to expand its influence and bolster its reputation as a global broker, while Egypt remains intensely focused on constraining Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Ultimately, while the external conditions are changing, the fundamental drivers of conflict in the Horn remain rooted in local rivalries and grievances.
About the Author
Brendon J. Cannon is an Associate Professor of International Security at Khalifa University in the United Arab Emirates. His research focuses on geopolitics, international security, and the interactions of sub-Saharan Africa with external state actors.
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